Probablility of Shot Patterns

     

    Golf statistics, specifically those related to a player's shot patterns can be very revealing and useful. PGA Tour Professionals would benefit the most from knowing their shot patterns since they are the most consistent ball strikers.

     If you would like an analysis of your shot pattern, you can send me some of your round statistics (5 to 10 Rounds), I'll analyze it and send you back a report. Just download an Excel Spreadsheet using the link, Download Excel Round, and e-mail me your results.

     Consider a shot to a pin which is tucked front/left on the par 3, 17th hole which is 158 yards long.  A water hazard guards the front portion of the green. You are one down in your match and hitting first. Should you aim at the pin? Probably not but it does depend on your shot pattern. If you land your selected iron within 15 feet of the pin 95% of the time, then the odds are in your favour. But even Tiger Woods isn't that consistently accurate. It's more likely that you hit at least 60% of your shots left and short meaning that if you aim at the pin, you are likely to go in the water and lose your match. It would be better to aim right and a little long. If you hit it where you aim, you'll still have a putt for birdie. If you do what is likely and hit it left and short, you'll be closer to the pin.

Club Shot Pattern Test : In 2003, Golf Digest performed some tests involved hitting a series of shots on 12 iron models introduced recently. Golf Digest Chief Technical Advisor Frank Thomas designed the test.

Golf Digest Equipment Panelist Gene Parente and his staff used their swing robot at Golf Laboratories Inc. to perform the test. During the test, each 6-iron was hit eight times on each of 13 different points on the clubface. The points included five vertical rows centered on the center line of the scored area of the clubface and three horizontal rows separated by one-quarter inch with the first row beginning one-half inch above the sole. A total of 104 shots were hit with each iron, and the totals were combined to produce a composite result. The data was analyzed by Professor Mark Broadie of Columbia University.

WHAT THEY FOUND: The concentric ellipses on the iron face (above) represent a composite image of two-, four- and six-yard losses in carry distance from the typical iron's hot spot (point of maximum carry as well as the center of ellipses). Of the 13 points, the average for point No. 1 produced the maximum carry distance, and the remaining points' distances fell off by varying degrees. For example, point No. 2 produced a shot that landed about five feet to the right of the target and nine feet short of the target, and point No. 11 landed about 13 feet right and 36 feet short. Mis-hits to the left or right of point No. 1 produced better results than those up or down from No. 1. On average, the best points are 1, 2, 4 and 9 (average miss: about seven feet), and the worst were spots 3, 7, 11 and 13 (average miss: approximately 36 feet).

By determining your own unique shot pattern, you can more accurately club for your shots and get better results. Why club to hit into the "red zone" above if you're only able to execute 5% of the time?      

Below are my statistics for the last 20 rounds with medium irons 5 through 7. Close is considered within 5 yards of the pin. Note that 30% of my shots finish short and 29% finish left.  Notice that my entire shot pattern is documented. In each rectangle is recorded the number of irons hit to that area (yellow) and the percentage of irons hit to that area.

 Below is a mapping of the green to which I have been referring. One can determine which part of the green to aim at by calculating the various outcomes of aiming at each part of the green. The region which yields the lowest score is the best choice. For instance, aiming at the pin is likely to result in penalties and extra strokes due to water. Aiming at the right side of the green is likely to result in a three putt.