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February PGI Contest

To register for February's contest worth $50, all you need to do is visit this page and enter your name and email. Refer friends to my newsletter, and you'll be entered as many times as the number of friends you refer.

Congratuations to Frank Stagno of Lafayette, LA, for winning the Jan Newsletter Contest of $50.

Just submit the name(s) of your friend(s) on the registration page.

Download any of my PGI Golf Tips or Reports. Buy a copy of the CD, Hit Down Dammit!, the new BreakMaster for measuring green break, Swing Machine Golf, or Swing Speed Detector or anything else, and you'll be entered once for every dollar value of your purchase.

We golfers are always losing balls. But sometimes in life, we lose more important things. Here's a way to make some new golfing friends.

A Brief Message      Feb 22/06

• Congratulations to Rory Sabbatini for his win at Riviera as well as Loren Roberts for his record setting pace thus far on the Champions Tour..
  
• My last newsletter was the second in a new series called "9 Holes with a Golf Expert." In this series I share my playing experience and how I utilize many of the golf tips I provide. View the previous newsletter here.
  
• In this newsletter, I'll reveal my statistical analysis of how the first three holes can be used to predict the final score, on one of Canada's finest golf courses, Salmon Arm Golf Club.
  
• An excellent golf book that I've promoted on my site for over a year is "Swing Machine Golf." Click here to take a peak. It's a beautiful book to have.
  
  

  View the left hand side of this page for some other great golf gift ideas. Get some great golf books from amazon.com. View my recommended golf science books.

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  Featured Products
  
  
  Visiball Golf Ball Finders
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  Check out my latest calculator. It calculates your handicap index. You can use it whenever you like ensure you're using the right index. Click here. Why pay? This one is free.
  

9 Holes with a Golf Expert -- Part 3: First Three Holes Statistical Analysis

Send me any suggestions you have for the next or future newsletters. Just submit your ideas using this simple form.

Click here to order Dave's Pelz's Short Game Bible, OR get it at your local bookstore. BUT, whatever you do, GET IT !! Your game will love you for it.

Recap from Last Time

† Stay in the present. In the course of a round, accept you'll make some bad shots and perhaps have some bad holes. What has happened can't be changed. How you react to it can affect your future shots.
†In the opening holes, play conservatively; don't take uneccessary risks. How you play the opening holes sets the tone for the rest of the round.

First 3 Holes
     
     Well, I couldn't hold off. I had to do the statistical analysis of how the opening hole scores are related to the final total score. I analyzed about 1700 scores from my home course Men's Night. Handicaps ranged from +2 - 35. I compared the average total net score of the first 3 holes with the final total net score. This is what I found.

    For the first 3 hole net total scores over par, 90% resulted in total NET scores over par. This would suggest shooting over net par on the opening holes almost always results in shooting over net par for the total round. Likewise, scoring at a net 75 pace or higher on the first three holes results in a total net score of net 75 or higher 82% of the time. Now part of this relationship might be due to the fact that those golfers not playing well on the first three holes do so because they just aren't playing well that day and continue to not play well.

     Of the scores analyzed, 72% had over net par starts. This would indicate that the opeing holes at Salmon Arm Golf Club are difficult. The handicap ratings for the first three holes are 3, 9 and 7, respectively, thus confirming that they are difficult.

     Of those golfers that shot lower than net par on the first three holes, 32% shot under net par total while 68% shot over net par total. Playing well at the beginning doesn't as likely lead to a good score as playing poorly leads to a poor score.

     I think these statistics indicate that the opening holes do influence how one plays for the rest of the round. That's why I encourage you to play conservatively on the opening holes. Don't take uneccessary risks. Of course it would be nice if you could shrug off a poor start and not let it affect your game. Unfortunately, the "confidence bubble" for most of us is quite thin and delicate.

     I'll see if I can get a hold of some PGA tournament scores and do a similar analysis with those. If so, that'll be the topic of my next newsletter. Otherwise, I'll continue with my "playing lessons" and the next few holes.

Hole #4 is the #1 handicap stroke hole. We'll find out why next time. Take a look at it in the mean time. Send me some feedback or ask some questions before I put out the next newsletter. Use this simple form.

Now, go get that book . Go to your local bookstore and get it OR click here, Click here to order Dave's Book, to order it from amazon; your game will thank you for it.

I'd appreciate any comments you have. Email them to me at probablegolf@yahoo.ca

Take a look below the suggestion box for some more ideas on how you can improve your game.

Ken Tannar