Net Scores

For each handicap group, the mean score and standard deviation was calculated. The “mean” is a statistical average (add all the scores together and divide by the number of scores). The “standard deviation” is a statistical measure of the amount of spread of the scores.

Handicap	Mean	St. Deviation	Spread of 99% of the scores
0 to 4	75.2	4.0	67.2 to 83.2
5 to 9	75.4	4.8	65.8 to 85.0

The mean, standard deviation and spread of each handicap group are listed in the table above. Note that the 0 to 4 has the highest low score but the lowest high score, thus a small spread. Low handicappers are more consistent day to day . . . . .

2 Man Best Ball

What about a 2 Man Best Ball Event? What combination of players would most likely produce the lowest score? I again used a spreadsheet to simulate pairings and their Net Best Ball Scores. Each player was paired with every other player resulting in over 140 000 scores. Players received strokes on holes according to the handicap difficulty of the hole (USGA Hole Allocation)  . . . . . . .

Match Play

What about match play? Does one handicap group have an advantage over the other?
I used a spreadsheet to simulate matches using all of the scores from each handicap group. Each score (over 1600 of them) was matched against each other score thus simulating over 140 thousand matches. Strokes were given according to the official handicap rating of the respective holes.

The table below shows an example of a simulated match between a 3 handicapper and a 23 handicapper. Note that their net scores, 74 and 73 respectively, are about the same. The official handicap ranking of the holes are in bold red. Gross scores are in black. Net scores on each hole used to determine a Win or Loss (W/L) are in red. The 3 handicap gets strokes on handicap ranked holes numbers 1, 2 and 3 (which correspond to hole numbers 4, 11 and 1, respectively. The 23 handicap gets 1 stroke on every hole except handicap ranked holes numbers 1 thru 5 (hole numbers 4, 11, 3, 16 and 9, respectively) where he gets 2 strokes.

Hole	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Yds	405	338	364	535	143	338	189	465	385	385
Par	4	4	4	5	3	4	3	5	4	36
Hcp	3	9	7	1	17	15	13	11	5
3	4	4	5	4	4	4	3	4	5	37
23	5	6	4	7	4	6	3	5	4	44
3	3	4	5	3	4	4	3	4	5	35
23	3	5	3	5	3	5	2	4	2	32
W/L	0	+1	-1	+1	-1	+1	-1	0	-1	-1

Note that on the front nine, the 3 handicap loses 1 down. On the back nine, the 3 wins 1 up so the match ends in a tie even though the net scores differ by one (3 handicap, 74, and 23 handicap, 73). The 3 handicap won the two most difficult holes (#4 and #11) even though the 23 handicap got 2 strokes on each of those holes.

Below is a table summarizing the results of the analysis of over 140 000 matches .....

Hole Difficulty and Where the Strokes Fall

 

The USGA has a system in place that determines the difficulty ranking of the holes. Every hole on an 18 hole course is ranked by difficulty and given a handicap rating of 1 thru 18, the handicap 1 hole being the most difficult hole and handicap 18 being the easiest hole. The system used by the USGA to rank the holes depends on the length of the holes as well as various difficulties on the holes (sand, water, elevation changes, etc). If you’re interested in the process that they use, go to: USGA Handicap Manual

At this Golf Course, the holes’ handicaps (difficult ranking) are at the top of the above table in bold red. Hole number 1, measuring 405 yards is ranked as Handicap 3, the third hardest hole.

For a 0-4 handicapper, the official hole rankings, Hcp, closely match the actual difficulty rankings. The average Distance/Stroke average is 79 yards/stroke. To predict the average score on any hole, dividing the hole length by 79 would predict quite well. For example, for Hole #15, 347 / 79 =4.4 which is the actual average; for Hole #11, 397 / 79 = 5.0, while the actual average is 4.6.

Note that for different handicap groups, the difficulty rankings of the holes are . . . . . . . . .

I've developed a calculator that will determine the real difficulty ranking of a golf course's holes. The ranking is different for each handicap group.

Download the calculator immediately and/or find out more. Click here.

 

Birdie Frequency and Those “Other” Scores

 

Many golfers when playing “friendly matches” play more than a stroke play or match play game. They also play for birdies, sandies, chip ins, 3 putts, etc. If the handicaps of the players are similar, then playing these games “straight up” is fair. But what about a low handicapper playing a high handicapper. The low handicapper is going to make more birdies and less 3 putts. In a birdie game, for instance, would it be fairer to play net birdies. Most low handicappers would argue that this would favour the high handicapper. What’s the fair way to play a birdie game?

Of the over 1600 scores, I analyzed the number of birdies, pars, bogies, etc., to answer the question of fairness. They are summarized in the table below.

Hcp		Eagle	Birdie	Par	Bogie	Double	Triple	Quad	Other
0 - 4		0.11	1.83	9.95	4.97	0.96	0.11	0.07	0.00

Low handicaps make more gross eagles and birdies than other handicaps. Other handicaps are reluctant to play “gross birdie” games with low handicappers as the lows are reluctant to play “net birdie” games. The number of birdies for each group has been quantified and therefore equitable birdie games have been identified.

 

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