Order Golf Tips  
Great Golf Gifts  

Send newletter to a friend

Mental Game

Golf Fitness  
Ask the Expert  
Contact Us  

Ken Tannar, PGI Creator

Mental Toughness


Swing Machine Golf

One of the best Golf Instruction Books available.
Sure to become a classic.


Hit Down Dammit! CD


Measure your mishits with CaddyPatch Impressions


Swing Speed Radar

Try my Driver Distance Calculator

Input speed, mass, loft, etc.



If you're a visitor, Subscribe to the Probable Golf Newsletter, or, sign up a friend. He/she will be sent a verification to opt in email.

First Name:
Last Name:



Probable Golf Instruction

Thanks for supporting Probable Golf Instruction. If you're not aware, I teach Physics & Mathematics (including Calculus). Teaching has been very busy for me this fall, thus I might only get one newsletter out this month. Feel free to give me feedback about my newsletter at probablegolf@yahoo.ca.

Oct/Nov PGI Contest

September's contest Mental Toughness, a CD Rom by Dr. Fran Pirozzolo and endorsed by Justin Leonard, 1997 British Open Champion, was not claimed by a newsletter subscriber. As we are well into fall, interest in golf has taken a downturn. For this reason, I'm offering a bimonthly contest.

For Oct/Nov, the winner will receive a $50 credit towards anything sold from my site. Download any of my PGI Golf Tips or Reports. Buy a copy of the CD, Hit Down Dammit!, a supply of Stinger Tees, CaddyPatch Impressions, Swing Machine Golf, or Swing Speed Detector.

After you make a purchase, just email me a message at probablegolf@yahoo.ca with the subject heading, "PGI Member." You need to be a newsletter subscriber to qualify.

I've had some great success with the Tour Tempo CD sound tracks. I've hit balls listening to the tempos and even played on the course. I'm impressed how good my timing and ball striking are; the problem is transferring it to the course without using the CD aid. It concludes that all good pros have a 3 to 1 swing tempo (backswing to forward swing). Total swings times vary (slow and fast). Most amateurs' backswings are too slow. I suggest to read it. It comes with a CD of audios that can train the proper tempo for you. Get it here.

You owe it to your game to make the best of your abilities; become " Master of Your Own Game". Stand out and improve, even without hitting any balls!!

Here's to a long lasting life of great golf!


A Brief Message      Oct 13/04

  • Ken here from Probable Golf Instruction. Congratulations to Tiger for tieing the knot. Glad he kept it a secret to avoid the pre-publicity. Obviously he has had some of the distractions that we mortals have.
  • In my last newsletter, I reported how the scoring statistics of this year's Champion's Tour and PGA Tour are in line with Riccio's Average Golfer Statistics. It re-emphasized the importance of a strong short game aka Dave Pelz's Short Game Bible.
    View the newsletter here.
  • In this issue, I'll reveal some of the results from my own studies of amateur golfer statistics
  • To compensate for lost distance due to cooler temperatures, try keeping your golf balls warm. You'll realize some extra distance. Begin with 3 warms balls (that have been inside your house prior to play). Place one under your armpit (against the skin) for about 10 minutes or more to warm it up. Keep the other two in your front pocket. Rotate through the balls as you play (one per hole, of course). Keep the one you're going to play on the next hole under your arm for as long as possible.

    Order yours here
    Receive a free copy of "How to hit the Longest Golf Ball Using New Golf Club Technology"

  • CaddyPatch Impressions just received "approval" by the PGA Tour Parteners Club members after
    their test of 1,000 oversized CaddyPatches by 1,000 different members. Approval will be announced in the Sept/Oct issue of the PGA Tour Partners
    Club magazine. Take a look at them here. They are a leather patch that fits on the face of the club. You can determine how you are mishitting the ball.
Golf Statistics Part 4: Amateur Golfer Scores

Read other Parts from the Technology & Distance series and Short Game series here, Archives.

Email me if you'd if there's anything you'd like to see discussed or analyzed in the next or future newsletters. Now on to this week's topic.

IV. Probable Golf Analysis of Amateur Golfer Scores

    When you play golf in a foursome, do you ever play any games? Other than matches, do you play for birdies, sandies, up & downs, 3 putts, etc. In this version of the newsletter, I'll provide you with some statistics about the number of birdies that various handicap groups make. If you're interested in playing a birdie game, there is a way to play an equitable one for all handicaps.

    Let's say a foursome is comprised of players with handicaps 4, 9, 16 & 25. Can a fair birdie game be played? The results of my analysis say yes. In fact, the foursome could play either a gross birdie game or net birdie game. Let me explain.

   This study analyzes over 1600 golf scores collected on Wednesday Men’s Nights at Salmon Arm Golf Course in Salmon Arm, B.C., Canada. The scores span the 2000, 2001 and 2002 golf seasons (May – Sept) for male golfers, handicaps +1 thru 36. Men’s Night scores were chosen to ensure a reasonable amount of effort on the part of the golfer (competition to motivate and decrease likelihood of quitting) and to ensure a minimum amount of “cheating.”

   Below is a table of number of various gross scores made by different handicap groups per round. The birdie frequencies are highlighted in blue. I also included the Champion's Tour results for 2004 for comparison.

Number Per Round

You can see that a 3 handicapper would make far more birdies per round than say a 30 handicapper (1.83 per round compared to 0.09 per round). For a 30 handicapper, a birdie is a rare occurence.

To play a fair gross birdie game, the birdies made by different handicaps would need to be weighted. The weighting used would be the ratio of the frequencies. Comparing the 3 handicap to the 30 handicap, the weighting would be 1.83/0.09 =20.3 . Statistically, this means that the 3 would make 20 times as many birdies as the 30. To play a fair birdie game, therefore, one birdie by the 30 would need to be equivalent to 20 made by the 3.

A 3 handicap may feel reluctant to play with such a weighting. If the payout per firdie were $1 each, the 3 would have to pay the 30 $20 for each birdie made. Yet, the statistics represent the natural occurrence. A 30 handicap could go many rounds without a birdie and get nothing. The 3 handicap would have birdies almost every round and would collect.

With a foursome of players with handicaps 4, 9, 16 & 25, one would use the weightings based on the low handicapper, thus:

1.83/1.13 = 1.6 for the 9, 1.83/0.38 = 4.8 for the 16, and 1.83/0.09 = 20.3

Let's say in a round, the number of birdies were 2, 2, 1 and 0 respectively for the 4, 9, 16 and 25 handicaps. The weighted birdie values would be 2, 3.2, 4.8 and 0, respectively. If paying $1 for each birdie, the day would be very expensive for the 25 handicapper. But, every so often, the 25 would make a birdie and win the lottery.

If you have further questions about how to use this weighting system. drop my an email at probablegolf@yahoo.ca

     As I said earlier, one could also play a net birdie game. That would require obtaining the frequencies of net birdies for the various handicap groups. If you'd like these frequencies, just purchase the full report by using the link below.

Pay $5.99 thru 2CheckOut       Handicap Statistics


Pay using

Handicap Statistics

     Next time, my newsletter topic will reveal some more results from my own studies of amateur golfer statistics. Take a preview here.

A list of resources that have been used to produce this newsletter can be found on my website here.

The focus of my site is to utilize science and math to lower your score. New technology is one way to achieve this, but to be honest, the technology is one small piece of the puzzle.

To actually improve significantly, we all need to:

1. Improve our swings using CD Interactive, Hit Down Dammit!

2. Learn how to swing simpler like the Iron Byron with the great coffee table book, Swing Machine Golf!

3. Improve our physical fitness and strength.
The Golf Trainer Power Performance Program™

4. Improve our mental games. Golf Mind Software

5. Improve our Probable Golf games. Learn how to make better choices on the course through knowing how shot patterns and reading the elements and course better.

Click on the links above to take a look at ways that I personally use myself and recommend you try as well.

Hope I provided some useful ways for to become better prepared for you best golf season ever.

Ken Tannar


If you'd like to opt out of this newsletter, send me an email with the subject "opt out, please"

Copyright © 2004 [Probable Golf Instruction]
Website designed by: Dan's Web Templates / AllWebTemplate.com