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Newsletter -- Odds of a Hole-in-One vs Yardage

In my last newsletter, I highlighted the PGA Tour Hole-in-Ones for 2015 and 2013. Review the results HERE.

To date on the PGA Tour this season, there have been 20 Hole-in-Ones up to The Memorial. How many more will there likely be?

In my last newsletter, I promised to break down the Hole-in-Ones by yardage. Is there a greater chance of getti

Totals for Field Total Holes in 1 Percentage
71496 17
  12737 <120 3 3 0.023553 1 in 4246
2014   2936 120<150 5 2 0.06812 1 in 1468
    15491 150<180 11 6 0.038732 1 in 2582
  15871 180<200 14 3 0.018902 1 in 5290
  23965 >200 3 3 0.012518 1 in 7988
ng a Hole-in-One on a short holes, say less than 120 yd? Here's what I've found so far.


In 2014, there were 71 496 attempts (par 3 holes played). Note that on the PGA Tour, most par 3s are over 200 yd, and there were 3 Hole-in-Ones. The next most common yardage is between 150 and 180 yd with 6 Hole-in-Ones and 180 and 200 yd with 3 Hole-in-Ones. Thus, the better statistic to look at is the percentage success (# of Hole-in-Ones divided by the number of attempts).

The percentage of Hole-in-Ones overall was 0.02255%, or 1 in 4246 attempts. Note that it appears that the longer the par 3, the more difficult it is to get a Hole-in-One, with the exception of those that are less than 120 yd. It might be that on short par 3s, the greens are more difficult and/or harder pin placements are chosen.

At first glance, it seems there are more Hole-in-Ones on the PGA Tour now than there were 16 years ago when Dr. Scheid did his analysis.

Total Attempts Total Holes in 1 Percentage
75160 (yd) 42 0.055881 1 in 1790
  13754 <120 6 6 0.043624 1 in 2292
  3798 120<150 11 5 0.131648 1 in 760
  2015   17634 150<180 21 10 0.056709 1 in 1763
  17421 180<200 29 8 0.045922 1 in 2178
  21687 >200 13 13 0.059944 1 in 1668

In 2015, there were far more Hole-in-Ones with 42 and a 0.05588% frequency, OR 1 IN 1790. Note how frequent Hole-in-Ones were for the 120 to 150 yd range, although this yardage range occurs the least on Tour.  The stats ar very different fro 2015 than for 2014 indicating the randomness of Hole-in-Ones.

If we combine the two seasons, we get totals that look like this:

146656 59 0.04023 1 in 2486
26491 <120 9 0.033974 1 in 2943
6734 120<150 7 0.10395 1 in 962
2014+ 2015 33125 150<180 16 0.048302 1 in 2070
33292 180<200 11 0.033041 1 in 3027
45652 >200 16 0.035048 1 in 2853



It's been my experience that Hole-in-Ones in the upcoming "Open Championship" (British Open) are even more rare, although I can't seem to find any data online (if you know of such data, please email me the details). The rareness of Hole-in-Ones at The Open is likely due to the fact that there are often heavy winds and more harsh weather conditions, as well as usually not being able to fire the ball at the pin and having it stop quickly; Links courses are much more dependent on bounces.


Watson -- Yardage on Downhill Shots

One of the greatest Open Champions of modern times is Tom Watson, with 5 titles. He also won his 2nd Senior British Open victory in 2005 at Royal Aberdeen in Scotland.

Tom finds it more difficult to judge distance going downhill becaue the ball is in the air longer. His rule of thumb with an 8-iron is that the ball will carry another 10 yards further for every 10 yards of drop. By the time he gets to the 4-iron, he doubles that distance.

I conduct golf polls on my website, www.probablegolfinstruction.com . Here are the results to my poll question on hitting downhill shots. Just click on View Stats and a popup window will appear with the stats. Please complete the poll if you haven't done so already.


Note from the stats that many golfers do not know how much the elevation affects the yardage of the shot (about 40% would use the wrong club). Recall that I've worked out the math and physics of downhill and uphill shots with my golf ball trajectory computer model. I've quantified what Tom has learned through trial and error through almost 40 years of professional golf. And, I've done the same for uphill shots.

If you play courses with any elevation changes at all, you'll find my tips will help you immensely with your club selection. And remember, the more certain you are with the club in your hands, the more confident you'll be, and thus be able to execute a better shot.

Take a look at my tips on uphill/downhill yardages. CLICK HERE.

I have used my computer golf ball projectile model to predict the effect of many variables on golf shots. The purpose has been to provide golfers with the tools to make better club selection choices on the golf course. More confidence in club choice equates to improved commitment, improved confidence and better golf shots; all resulting in lower scores.

Go ahead, choose your weapon against uncertainty and poor golf shots. All golfers can benefit from these golf tips, regardless of handicap.

The Open Winds -- how to adjust yardage

The wind blew during the final 3 rounds of The Open Champioinship at Turnberry, Scotland the last time it was played there. On the last day, the wind blew typically between 20 and 25 mph.

Wind affects lower balls flights less than high ball flights. Many of the pros can hit knock down shots. Most amateurs cannot.

How much does a 20 mph wind affect a golf ball's flight? Well, again I have worked out the amount using my computer model. When you compare into the wind to with the wind, you need to adjust for more yardage than with no wind.

Most players underestimate the effects of the wind, especially when hitting into it. Some of this comes from a misunderstanding of the anatomy of the ball's flight in the wind. My poll question clearly identifies this misunderstanding.

Just click on View Stats below and a popup window will appear with the stats. Please complete the poll if you haven't done so already.


The last answer is the correct one.

I've worked out how much you need to adjust for all the basic wind directions: downwind, headwind, crosswind and partial crosswind/downwind/headwind. And, I've developed a very simple way for you to measure the wind's speed.

CLICK HERE to read more and acquire the tips you need to play the wind effectively.


Longest Day = Maximum Rounds of Golf

Did you know we just passed the longest day of the year, June 21, in the Northern Hemisphere? That's the day when we have the greatest number of hours of daylight. Which means we can play the most number of rounds of golf on that day!!

Fortunately, the days aren't that much shorter for another month or so, so, you can continue to get lots of golf in.

Check out how many hours of daylight there is at your location using my special "Hours of Golf Daylight" calculator. CLICK HERE.


GOLF TIP: The average golfer will lose about 2 yards of carry on their Driver for every 10 degree F drop in temperature and a little less for a 9-iron. When playing in significantly cooler temperatures, you need to hit at least a half club more. Plus, tee shots won't carry as far because of less roll, so you'll have longer shots into the green, Click HERE.



In the meantime, check out my past newsletter topics by clicking HERE.

I provide three services to golfers who are interested in determining how the wind will affect their shots.

1. How to Read and Play the Wind -- based on average launch trajectories

You'll learn how to measure the speed and direction of the wind and then calculate how far the shot will play. Only $15.99

2. Club Ranges for Head Wind and Tail Wind -- based on average launch trajectories

Send me your normal club ranges. I'll convert them into the ranges your clubs will play into headwinds and tailwinds. Only $24.99.

3.Your Unique Club Ranges for Head Wind and Tail Wind -- based on your own launch trajectories

Send me your normal club ranges along with your launch angles and spin. I'll convert them into the ranges your clubs will play into headwinds and tailwinds. Only $44.99. You'll need to have access to a launch monitor such as Trackman, Flightscope.

You can immediately download a copy "Reading & Playing the Wind." I'll explain how you can easily measure the wind's speed (without using any kind of electronic device) and how much each 1 yard per second of wind will affect your various club ranges. The only guessing for you will be determining if the wind's speed is in fact constant.

The report will include how to compensate for crosswinds and partial crosswinds. It'll take much of the guesswork out of picking the right club for the shot.

You can order and download immediately by clicking on the PayPal icon below.

Golf flag in a high wind. How much do you adjust? How to you measure the speed of the wind? Remember, it's highly unlikely you'll ever hit a good shot if you are doubting what club to hit. Using my wind tips, you'll be able to quantify the number of yards the wind will likely affect your shot. As your confidence grows with you being able to predict the effect, the more committed you will become to your shots, the better you'll hit them, and the lower you will score.


The cost of the report is only $15.99. ORDER Here.

Unless the wind is blowing really hard, you don't need to change your swing; you just need to change your club. You need to choose the right club and have confidence in hitting it. My tips will make this a reality.

You can provide me with yardages for each club in your bag. I'll input your values into a program I have written, and send you a template which will outline how different speed winds will change the real yardages for each club. The service is only $15.99. You can order it here.

See and order all or my products at my golf product order (click HERE)  page.

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