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Ken Tannar, PGI Creator

 
Mental Toughness


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Probable Golf Instruction
Welcome

Thanks for supporting Probable Golf Instruction. Most of us are gearing up for fall (back to school, kids back to school, shorter days, cooler temp, etc) If you have any specific questions related to the topic that you'd like answered, join my PGI Member Select Club. I'll answer all your golf questions related to your own, unique golf game in a prompt, thorough fashion. I'm just an email away at golf expert@probablegolfinstruction.com.

September PGI Contest

August is generally a slow month on the internet. Purchases from my site were low as well. In fact, no newsletter member emailed me indicating they had made a purchase so, September's contest will be for Mental Toughness, a CD Rom by Dr. Fran Pirozzolo and endorsed by Justin Leonard, 1997 British Open Champion. Download any of my PGI Golf Tips or Reports. Buy a copy of the CD, Hit Down Dammit!, a supply of Stinger Tees, CaddyPatch Impressions, Swing Machine Golf, or Swing Speed Detector.

After you make a purchase, just email me a message at probablegolf@yahoo.ca with the subject heading, "PGI Member." You need to be a newsletter subscriber to qualify.

I've had some great success with the Tour Tempo CD sound tracks. I've hit balls listening to the tempos and even played on the course. I'm impressed how good my timing and ball striking are; the problem is transferring it to the course without using the CD aid. It concludes that all good pros have a 3 to 1 swing tempo (backswing to forward swing). Total swings times vary (slow and fast). Most amateurs' backswings are too slow. I suggest to read it. It comes with a CD of audios that can train the proper tempo for you. Get it here.

You owe it to your game to make the best of your abilities; become " Master of Your Own Game". Stand out and improve, even without hitting any balls!!

Here's to a long lasting life of great golf!

 

A Brief Message    

  • Wind Caddy App

    From the team that brought you the top selling app Wind Meter, GoingApps is happy to introduce Wind Caddy. Wind Caddy helps the golfer always select the right club for the conditions. Wind Caddy works by collecting 4 inputs and recommending a club and correct Aim for the hole based on a proprietary algorithm developed by professional Golf Caddy and avid golfer Ken Tannar of www.probablegolfinstruction.com.

    Wind Caddy will advise you on aim, distance and club so that you can play the wind successfully. It takes the guess work out of club selection.

    Click Here to Learn More ....

 
Golf Statistics Part 2: Statistical Analysis of the Average Golfer

Read other Parts from the Technology & Distance series and Short Game series here, Archives.

Email me if you'd if there's anything you'd like to see discussed or analyzed in the next or future newsletters. Now on to this week's topic.

II. Dr. L.J. Riccio, PhD did an analysis of "average golfers"

    Although much is known about the statistical profile of professional golfers, little has been published on the play of other golfers. Riccio's 1990 paper used data from over 100 golfers ranging in ability from Jack Nicklaus to a 35 handicapper. The analysis was designed to determine which aspects of play separates the average players from the top amateurs.

     He found that some specific statistics were good predictors of score. For example, the number of pars made could be used to accurately predict score, using the equation, SCORE = 102.6 - 2.7 X #pars. If a player typically makes 7 pars each round, his/her likely average score would be 102.6 - 2.7 X 7 = 83.7.

     Take a look at how many pars you usually make in a round (analyze your last 5 rounds). What does the above formula predict for your average score? Is it a good predictor?

     Another good predictor is greens in regulation, GIR. The formula Riccio discovered for GIR is SCORE = 95.1 - 2.0 X GIR. If you are an excellent ball striker and happen to hit on average 15 greens per round, then your likely average score would be 95.1 - 2.0 X 15 = 65.1. Yes, 65! The pros don't hit on average 15 greens per round.

Below is a table which summarizes some of the statistics that Riccio investigated. Where do you fit in with your game?

 
AVERAGE SCORE
Relationship
CATEGORY
71
75
79
81
85
89
91
95
99
 
GIR
12
10
8
7
5
3
2
0
0
Strong
% Fairways
81
71
61
56
46
36
31
21
11
Weak
Iron Accuracy
80
68
53
47
33
20
13
0
0
Good
Putts per Round
29.0
30.3
31.7
32.3
33.7
35.0
35.7
37.0
38.3
Weak
Pitch/Chip/Sand
5.1
7.4
9.8
10.9
13.3
15.6
16.8
19.2
21.5
Strong
Birdies
3.2
2.4
1.8
1.5
0.8
0.1
0
0
0
Strong
Pars
11.8
10.3
8.8
8.1
6.6
5.1
4.3
2.8
1.3
Strong

The last column indicates the strength of the statistical relationship between score and the statistic. A "Strong" relationship is one that predicts quite well one statisitic given the other (i.e. the SCORE given the GIR). A "Weak" relationship does not predict as well.

As a comparison, keep similar statistics for yourself over the next 5 rounds (10 rounds would be better) and see how your statistics are related to the scores you shoot.

Let's say your scoring average is 89. You have a goal to get down to breaking 80, thus a scoring average of 79. Compared to overall average golfer statistics, you need to improve by:

increasing GIR from 3 to 8 (267% increase)
increasing Iron Accuracy from 20 to 53% (265% increase)
reducing Putts per Round from 35.0 to 31.7 (9.5% decrease)
reducing Pitch/Chip/Sand from 15.6 to 9.8 (37% decrease)

Learn your perfect swing while attached to the "Dream Swing."

 

 

Your ball striking and thus swing would need to improve immensely to reach your goal. Imagine how much less improvement is necessary with the short game to realize lower scores. I recommend you buying Dave Pelz's book to help out.

I've also done my own statistical study on amateur golfer statistics. Using a similar range of handicaps as Riccio, I've analyzed scores from my own golf club's tournaments. Click on the highlighted link, Fair Handicap Analysis.

From www.usga.org , they have a listing of Men's Handicap Indexes and percentages in each category. Even though this would not include all golfers, it's a pretty good representative sample.

70% of men have indices between 7 and 23, corresponding to scores of about 77 to 93, with an average of 85 (assuming a course rating of about 70).

     Next time, my newsletter topic will continue with statistics in golf. Email me if you'd if there's anything you'd like to see discussed or analyzed.

A list of resources that have been used to produce this newsletter can be found on my website here.

The focus of my site is to utilize science and math to lower your score. New technology is one way to achieve this, but to be honest, the technology is one small piece of the puzzle.

To actually improve significantly, we all need to:

1. Improve our swings using CD Interactive, Hit Down Dammit!

2. Learn how to swing simpler like the Iron Byron with the great coffee table book, Swing Machine Golf!

3. Improve our physical fitness and strength.
The Golf Trainer Power Performance Programô

4. Improve our mental games. Golf Mind Software

5. Improve our Probable Golf games. Learn how to make better choices on the course through knowing how shot patterns and reading the elements and course better.

Click on the links above to take a look at ways that I personally use myself and recommend you try as well.

Hope I provided some useful ways for to become better prepared for you best golf season ever.

Ken Tannar

 

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