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Ken Tannar, PGI Creator

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Probable Golf Instruction

Thanks for supporting Probable Golf Instruction. My apologies for the tardiness of this newsletter. I was exploring Toronto & Ottawa. If you have any specific questions related to the topic that you'd like answered, join my PGI Member Select Club. I'll answer all your golf questions related to your own, unique golf game in a prompt, thorough fashion. I'm just an email away at golf expert@probablegolfinstruction.com.

August PGI Contest

Congratulations to Arthur Williams III of Winston-Salem, NC , who won the July contest and a copy of Using The Mental Keys, an audio CD valued at $70. If you'd still like to order a copy of the CD, you can purchase them from my site at a 10% discount (send me an email & I'll send you a special link), and you'll be entered into August's contest for Mental Toughness, a CD Rom by Dr. Fran Pirozzolo and endorsed by Justin Leonard, 1997 British Open Champion. Or download any of my PGI Golf Tips or Reports. Buy a copy of the CD, Hit Down Dammit!, a supply of Stinger Tees, CaddyPatch Impressions or Swing Machine Golf.

After you make a purchase, just email me a message at probablegolf@yahoo.ca with the subject heading, "PGI Member." You need to be a newsletter subscriber to qualify.

I've been just finished a very easy-read book called Tour Tempo. It concludes that all good pros have a 3 to 1 swing tempo (backswing to forward swing). Total swings times vary (slow and fast). Most amateurs' backswings are too slow. I suggest to read it. It comes with a CD of audios that can train the proper tempo for you. Get it here.

You owe it to your game to make the best of your abilities; become " Master of Your Own Game". Stand out and improve, even without hitting any balls!!

Here's to a long lasting life of great golf!


A Brief Message      Aug 24/04

  • Ken here from Probable Golf Instruction. For many of us, the heat has been intense. The official majors are over for the season, but we do have the Canadian Open and the Ryder Cup in September.
  • In my last newsletter, I explained the method I use to hit high lob shots (not the full swing ones that Tiger and Phil hit). Feel is still involved but one can become much more confident and consistent.
    View it here.

  • In this issue, I'll explain how to deal with statistics in golf. What is an average golfer? How does a good, low amateur compare to a PGA Tour pro?
  • I returned from holidays to find the Doppler Radar Swing Speed Detector produced by Sports Sensors, Inc. had arrived. What an easy tool to use. You just set it down about a foot from the ball and it records your swing speed in mph or km/h. You can also use the device to measure bat swing speed. I've ordered a bunch to sale from my site. They retail for $100 US but I'm going to offer newsletter subscribers 10% off until the end of the Ryder Cup. Order yours here.

  • CaddyPatch Impressions just received "approval" by the PGA Tour Parteners Club members after
    their test of 1,000 oversized CaddyPatches by 1,000 different members. Approval will be announced in the Sept/Oct issue of the PGA Tour Partners
    Club magazine. Take a look at them here. They are a leather patch that fits on the face of the club. You can determine how you are mishitting the ball.
Golf Statistics Part 1: Pelz Discovered the short game was important

Read other Parts from the Technology & Distance series and Short Game series here, Archives.

If you'd like one on one explanations about the topic, sign up for the PGI Member Select Club and I'll answer all your questions in a prompt, thorough fashion. Now on to this week's topic.

I. Pelz discovered a long time ago the statistical significance of the short game.

     I'm in the middle of Dave Pelz's Short Game Bible. Boy, is he impressive. He has a physics background like I do and a thriving/sense for statistics. I'd recommend his book for interest and game improvement. To be honest, I don't know Pelz and have not contacted him in any way.

     Back in the 70's, he began collecting shot statistics for pros on tour. What he discovered amazed him and the pros. I admire his tenacity for collecting all the data; what a labourious job.

     Pelz recorded distances that players hit from and their errors. He used the data to determine their respective PEI (percentage error index = error distance divided by distance) values. For instance, if a player misses his 200 yard target by 15 yards, his PEI = 15/200 = 0.075 => 7.5%  Likewise, if a player misses his 150 yard target by 12 yards, his PEI = 12/150 = 0.08 => 8.0%  I've replicated some of the values from his book below.


What Pelz discovered was that full club PEIs for a given player are essentially the same. A player with a 5.4% Driver PEI (250 yard drive --> 13.5 yard error) has about the same PEI of 5.6% with a 9-iron (130 yard 9i --> 7.6 yard error).

The range of full-swing PEIs went from about 5% to 9%. The wedge PEIs went from 13% to 26%. Putting PEIs varies from about 5% to 10%. He found that the large errors for wedges was a result of distance control.

Full-swing shot errors are mainly attributed to direction. The player mainly misses the target left or right but has very little error in distance. For instance, a player may hit a 150 yard shot and miss it 11 yards left but only be 1 or 2 yards long or short.

Wedge shot errors are mainly attributed to distance. The player mainly misses the target long or short but has very little error in direction. Have you ever hit that 80 yard wedge shot that is all over the pin yet it falls 9 yards short or long?

To Pelz, his results amplified the importance of the wedge game. He found no correlation between full-swing shot errors and money made. In fact he noted that the lowest full-swing PEI over a 3 year period was from a player that didn't make much money and fell off the tour. He did, however, find a strong correlation between money earnings and wedge PEIs.

What I've read from Pelz's book just reiterates and validates what I've been saying about the importance of the short game in previous newsletters. I'd highly recommend getting Pelz's book for more details of his study and an improvement plan that you can follow. You can purchase it from amazon.com.

     Next time, my newsletter topic will continue with statistics in golf. What is an average golfer? How do you compare?

Purchase my Longest Golf Ball Report (over 360 sold so far) in which I statistically analyze distances of over 90 different golf balls with differing constructions. Theballs were hit using a mechanical hitting machine.

A list of resources that have been used to produce this newsletter can be found on my website here.

The next newsletter's topic will be on average golfer statistics.
If you have any questions ahead of time, send me an email.

The focus of my site is to utilize science and math to lower your score. New technology is one way to achieve this, but to be honest, the technology is one small piece of the puzzle.

To actually improve significantly, we all need to:

1. Improve our swings using CD Interactive, Hit Down Dammit!

2. Learn how to swing simpler like the Iron Byron with the great coffee table book, Swing Machine Golf!

3. Improve our physical fitness and strength.
The Golf Trainer Power Performance Programô

4. Improve our mental games. Golf Mind Software

5. Improve our Probable Golf games. Learn how to make better choices on the course through knowing how shot patterns and reading the elements and course better.

Click on the links above to take a look at ways that I personally use myself and recommend you try as well.

Hope I provided some useful ways for to become better prepared for you best golf season ever.

Ken Tannar


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