Golf Game Management II: Your Shot Pattern
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on to this week's topic.
II.
Hit to your own
shot pattern to
shoot lower scores
The
topic of this this
series is Golf Game
Management. Can you
shoot lower scores
without physical
improvement? The
answer is a resounding,
YES! Not that
I'm advocating not
improving your ball
striking and short
game skill level.
Do you know your shot pattern with
each of your clubs?
Do you hit the majority
of your short irons
left, right, short
or long of the target?
Knowing your shot
pattern for your
clubs is critical
to making good club
selections and deciding
on your target. The
flag is not always
the best target.
Where you aim depends
on the location of
hazards and on your
shot pattern.
Consider a typical shot pattern
below in Diagram
1, assuming a circular
green with the target
flag at the center.
This pattern represents
the player's last
27 shots with a particular
club. Note that most
of the shots fall
short of the middle
of the green and
are skewed to the
left. The bulk of
the misses are short
and left of the center
of the green. This
is consistent with
the fact that most
golfers hit short
of their targets.
Below right is a schematic of a
green in Diagram
2 bordered by water
front left and a
sand bunker on the right. We'll
also assume that
outside this diagram
is either out of
bounds or heavy foilage
of some sort (trees,
high grass, bushes,
etc).
 Diagram
1 |
 Diagram
2 |
Diagram 3 to the right is an overlap of the
shot pattern with
the green assuming
the target is the
flag at the left,
front of the green.
Note that many of the shots would end up in the water
or out of bounds.
In fact, only 8 or
27 shots ends
up on the green. |
 Diagram
3 |
In hitting to the above hole, what should the
player expect to
score if he/she aims
at the flag? We can
calculate the expected
score by using the
probabilities of
hitting different
positions.
Let's take a look at the various probabilities:
hitting the green is
8/27 = 0.30, or 30%
hitting the water
is 6/27 = 0.22, or
22%
hitting it O.B.
is 3/27 = 0.11, or
11%
hitting the apron of the green
is 7/27 = 0.26, or
26%
hitting to where a wedge would be played 3/27 = 0.11, or
11%
Without doing any further analysis, it should
be quite obvious
that the player aiming
at the flag will
likely have a poor
score.
To calculate the expected scores, one needs to
combine the probabilities
with the likely number
of strokes taken
from different postions.
I'll use the same
ones as I used in
the previous newsletter.
Wedge 10-40 yards = 2.8 strokes = E(Wedge) =
Expect #strokes
with wedge
Chips
= 2.4 strokes = E(Chip)
= Expect #strokes
with chip shots from
green edge
Putts (15-30 ft)
= 1.9 strokes = E(Putts)
= Expect # putts
Water = 1 shot penalty plus Wedge shot = 3.8
O.B. = 1 shot penalty
and re-hit from tee
taking 3.5 with 2nd
ball = 4.5
With the above shot pattern, the expected score
on the hole would
be the:
= iron shot stroke + hit green + hit water +
hit O.B. + hit apron
+ hit wedge
= 1 + 0.30 X 1.9 + 0.22 X 3.8 + 0.11 X 4.5 +
0.26 X 2.4 + 0.11 X 2.8
= 1 + 0.57 + 0.84 + 0.50 + 0.62 + 0.31 = 1 +
2.84 = 3.84
If you'd like further explanation of the mathematics
above, click here.
The
expected score
is 3.84, well above
par. Of course,
sometimes the player would
make 3, other times
4, and even 5 or
6. On very rare occasions, the player
would make 2 (this
is what the player
remembers clearly
and thus is tempted
to go for the flag
on future shots).
Assume now the player aims about 10 yards right
of the flag and about
5 yards long. Diagram
4 below shows the
likely outcomes.
X marks the aim target.
|
Note that 21 out of 27 shots hit the green.
What a huge difference;
that's 78%. Only
1 finds the water
and 1 finds the
sand.
I'm sure you can see that if we computed the new probabilities
and expected
# of strokes,
the expected
score would be much
lower. |
One of the services I
provide golfers is
a "shot
pattern" analysis.
After the player collects
his/her shot statistics
with the various clubs,
I use a spreadsheet I've
written to determine where
the player should aim on
a hole relative to the
flag in order to have the
lowest expected score (using
calculations like the ones
in the example above).
To see a specific example of what this service
provides, take a
look at this shot
pattern example. The service only costs $12.99. Order it
here.
In future newsletters on this topic, we'll take
a look at Game Management
further in areas
such as club selection
based on shot patterns,
wind, elevation,
altitude, and temperature.
We'll also look at
Game Management as
it applies to your
short game and putting.
There a lots of ways
to make the best
of what you currently
have! We can all
make better choices
on the course.
|
Make a Newsletter Suggestion.
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If
you are more interested
in finding out which
golf ball is best
for you and your
game, consider the
following:
Longest
Golf Ball Report -- a statistical
analysis of different
golf balls hit by
an
Iron
Byron Robot machine.
Discover
the secret "missing
link" in your
golf game. Understand
which golf balls
REALLY make a
difference in
each stroke!
A list of resources that have been used to produce this newsletter
can be found on my
website here.
The focus
of my site
is to utilize science
and math to lower
your score. New technology
is one
way to achieve this,
but to be honest,
the technology is
one small piece of
the puzzle.
To actually improve significantly,
we all need to:
1. Improve our swings using CD
Interactive, Hit
Down Dammit!
2. Learn how to swing simpler
like the Iron Byron
with the great coffee
table book, Swing
Machine Golf!
3. Improve our physical fitness
and strength.
The
Golf Trainer Power
Performance Program™ and Ultimate
Golf Fitness Ebook
4. Improve our mental games.
Golf
Mind Software
5. Improve our Probable
Golf games.
Learn how to make better
choices on the course
through knowing how
shot patterns and reading
the elements and course
better.
Click on the links above to
take a look at
ways that I personally
use myself and
recommend you try
as well.
Hope
I provided some useful
ways for to become
better prepared for
you best golf season
ever.
Ken Tannar
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